Returns are an assumption, so Keel makes the assumption explicit and lets you stress it. Each scenario is a blended annual return over a 30% anchor / 70% high-yield sleeve split:
blended = 0.30 × (anchorYield + anchorGrowth) + 0.70 × (hyYield + hyGrowth)
| Scenario | Blended return | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | ≈ 0.4% / yr | Recession — yields hold, NAV declines. A stress test. |
| Base | ≈ 7.0% / yr | Historically-grounded long-run expectation. |
| Bull | ≈ 14.5% / yr | Sustained higher yields + capital appreciation. |
Switch scenarios on the drill-in to re-run the whole projection — leveraged plans especially look very different in Bear (see margin-call mechanics). An optional Monte-Carlo band (200 randomized paths) can be layered on the chart to show the spread of outcomes, not just the single expected line.
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