Leverage & risk

Margin-call mechanics — modelling the downside

When LTV reaches the maintenance equity floor, the broker forces a sale. Keel liquidates just enough and counts it.

Leverage isn't free, and the projection shows it. Each week, if the portfolio falls (or the margin balance compounds) enough that LTV reaches the maintenance equity floor 1 − maintenanceMargin, ≈ 66.5% with a ≈ 33.5% sleeve-weighted maintenance margin — the broker forces a sale. Keel liquidates just enough (selling across sleeves proportionally) to restore LTV to the hard cap, and counts it.

This is why Margin Float can look very different under Bear: the same leverage that amplifies gains amplifies losses, and a forced liquidation locks them in. The drill-in surfaces peak LTV, drawdown-to-call, and the modelled margin-call count so the downside is never hidden behind a single rosy line.

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